Causes and implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for the world and India

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Due to its struggle and independence from the British Empire, its strong belief in the voice and freedom of the people, vast lands, enormous natural resources and hard workers, the United States United has not only become an undisputed superpower, it has also become an inspiration to all freedom fighters. in the world. In his famous book, “Common Sense” written before the independence of the United States in 1776, Thomas Paine harshly criticized the British for their atrocities in their empire. He condemned the British for “sucking Indian blood”. Despite being a superpower, the United States was the first country that did not colonize any country except the Philippines. The United States has assisted a number of countries in their struggle for independence and the overthrow of apartheid governments, such as in South Africa. US President Franklin Roosevelt pressured the British to liberate India. The United States has given huge amounts of financial aid and loans to almost every country in the world. The United States has allowed immigration to millions of people, which has not only resulted in its unique culture, but also enhanced its academic, financial, and industrial excellence. The United States has excellent educational research facilities that are unparalleled in the world. The United States served as a buffer for brutal dictators such as Hitler, Stalin, etc. and became a messiah to encourage democracy, human rights and prevent genocide. In fact, the United States has become a super and a generous cop for the world.

From the end of World War II, the United States became relaxed in its efforts and arrogant. In her belief that with her power, her weapons and her money, she could achieve anything in the world. After World War II, the United States ignored the engulfment of Eastern European and Central Asian countries by the Soviet Union. At that time, the United States realized that Russia was expanding its empire from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. In order to discourage the expansion of Russia, led by the United States, Western countries began a process of NATO consolidation and encouraged Eastern European countries to join NATO. Mr Putin, a former head of the KGB, was furious with the exit of the Soviet Union from the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia in 1991. He called it “the greatest disaster of the 20th century”. . In 1994, Russia agreed to respect the independence and sovereignty of countries that were part of the Soviet Union. In 1997, the United States and other NATO members assured Russian President Gorbachev that NATO would not expand east of NATO members, however, there is no written agreement. Russia had realized the lack of reaction of the United States to its military activities in Georgia, Crimea and Belarus. Moreover, the United States has done very little, if anything, to help the citizens of these countries regain their independence. Other than issuing strong words, the United States did little against the Russian invasion of Hungary in 1986 when Hungary attempted to disassociate itself from the Soviet Union. In its enthusiasm to counter the Soviet Union, beginning with John Foster Dulles, the United States even tolerated dictators as long as they were with the United States. The United States also began to disadvantage non-aligned countries such as India, as they did not align with the United States and did not like it dealing with the Soviet Union. By opposing movements against dictators in some countries, the United States has pushed them into the communist camp like Cuba.

Thus begins a chapter of American decline. In the early 1960s, when the French left Vietnam, the United States moved into South Vietnam. As usual, the United States relied mainly on arms and money and not on diplomacy and the Vietnamese people. The United States made other mistakes by replacing Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk with a military dictator and bombing Cambodia. Likewise, the United States began bombing Laos. North Vietnam, along with its local allies, moved into Cambodia and Laos and installed communist governments there. If the United States had negotiated with North Vietnam and the King of Cambodia, the United States would have avoided genocides in Cambodia and, with less bombing, the United States would have reached an honorable agreement with Vietnam and a withdrawal peaceful. However, the United States stuck to its guns and was eventually forced to abandon South Vietnam and leave Vietnam in a hurry. This disastrous start was then repeated in Afghanistan in 2021. Starting with the Vietnam War, Americans began to lose the will to fight.

The United States was rightly upset when Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1978. However, instead of blindly training fundamentalists to fight the Russians, the United States should have a well-planned strategy to encourage the public to resist and fight the government installed by the Soviets. The United States trained and relied on the Taliban, fundamentalist Muslims who then turned their guns on America. Russia was wise enough to realize that it and its puppet head of the Afghan government could not hold out for too long, the Russians left long before the government fell there. In contrast, the US withdrawal in 2021 was the second-worst withdrawal of the very powerful country.

President Bush’s decision to attack Iraq on fictitious bases was another historic blunder that has resulted in the ongoing chaos, high death tolls, atrocities, rapes and the displacement of a huge population in the Middle -East. Now Russia has more influence and a better presence in the Middle East.

After Russia’s attacks in Georgia and Crimea, its former colonies, the United States and European countries should have received a wake-up call. Western European countries continued to focus on their industries, economic and trade enterprises. They continued to depend on the United States for military activities. They ignored that to survive economically, the country must be militarily strong.

There should have been strong US retaliation against Russia’s aggression in Georgia and Crimea. After almost no reaction to its aggression in Georgia and Crimea, Russia entered Belarus in support of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The United States should have worked with the Belarusian military general, who has publicly opposed the government’s crackdown on protesters. After America’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia began to believe that the American will to fight or take military action was all but gone. Russia has come to the conclusion that now is the right time to move its army to Ukraine. There is speculation that Russia will either withdraw after installing the government it has chosen or annex Ukraine again and make it part of Russia; Only time will tell.

Some experts believe that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was intended to discourage Ukraine and other Eastern European countries from joining NATO. The West should make it clear that the agreement not to do so would be honored. Either way, NATO is useless because no NATO country has the will or desire to fight. As someone said, NATO stands for “No Action Talks Only”. In general, the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltics, with the exception of Hungary, easily submitted to aggression. Once when I was visiting Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic, our guide said, “Why do we waste money in the army, with one exception, we lost all the wars.” So, even if NATO decides to be a serious military organization, it is better that NATO does not encourage countries that could annoy Russia unnecessarily.

It is unclear whether economic sanctions would have a serious effect on Russia, as Russia has accumulated at least half a trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves due to recent high crude oil prices. The unrest caused by Russia would further increase oil prices, which would greatly benefit Russia, as a number of countries are buying and will continue to buy Russian oil. A number of countries large and small, including major economic powers such as China, India, Brazil, United Arab Emirates, etc. will continue to do business with Russia.

Now the question is, what else could NATO countries have done? Had they stationed their well-equipped joint forces on the Ukrainian border, Russia would have thought twice before engaging in direct military combat with the West. Even if Russia had decided to invade Ukraine and fight with NATO forces, it would not have walked to Kiev. Alternatively, NATO countries could have bombed the Russian army at least when it was inside Ukraine. I am sure NATO army chiefs would have come up with a military plan to inflict heavy casualties and casualties on the Russian army if the politicians had consulted with them. It must be recognized that the invasion of Ukraine provoked an unprecedented reaction in the world. There was opposition even in Russia and China.

As things stand, Russia can achieve its goal and can even stay in Ukraine. Western European countries, which would also suffer huge economic losses, could set aside or ignore the Ukraine issue and resume business as usual. Therefore, the lack of combative will on the part of Western countries could become a norm and Russia will soon be considered the supreme world power. It could also encourage China to invade and occupy Taiwan.

Come now to India. China did not appreciate India’s refusal to negotiate border disputes and its membership of the Quad. India’s other activities such as arming the Philippines and Vietnam are anti-Chinese. It is also possible that China will attack India and annex more Indian territory, especially Arunachal Pradesh.

What should India do? India cannot totally dismiss Russia which has always been its support. In the past, Russia had also discouraged China from a full-scale war against India. So far, India has played its cards well. India should actively mediate a ceasefire and become a channel for negotiations between Russia and the West, which India can do, due to its proximity to both sides and its economic power.

Hopefully economic and other sanctions and global tumult would force Russia to leave Ukraine or reach a compromise. If not, something else to reverse Russia’s aggression is needed, such as military action to stop the current unrest and ensure world peace.



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The opinions expressed above are those of the author.



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